FUNDSINVESTINGGUIDE.COM

about investing - www.fundsinvestingguide.com

Menu


Now the experts hustled to explain their faulty forecasting. The criminologist James Alan Fox explained that his warning of a "blood- bath" was


in fact an intentional overstatement. "I never said there would be blood flowing in the streets," he said, "but I used strong terms like bloodbath to get peoples attention. And it did. I dont apologize for using alarmist terms." (If Fox seems to be offering a dis- tinction without a difference-"bloodbath" versus "blood flowing in the streets"-we should remember that even in retreat mode, experts can be self-serving.) After the relief had settled in, after people remembered how to go about their lives without the pressing fear of crime, there arose a nat- ural question: just where did all those criminals go? At one level, the answer seemed puzzling. After all, if none of the criminologists, police officials, economists, politicians, or others who traffic in such matters had foreseen the crime decline, how could they suddenly identify its causes? But this diverse army of experts now marched out a phalanx of hypotheses to explain the drop in crime. A great many newspaper articles would be written on the subject. Their conclusions often hinged on which expert had most recently spoken to which reporter. Here, ranked by frequency of mention, are the crime-drop explana- tions cited in articles published from 1991 to 2001 in the ten largest- circulation papers in the LexisNexis database:     CRIME-DROP EXPLANATION NUMBER OF CITATIONS   1. Innovative policing strategies 52   2. Increased reliance on prisons 47   3. Changes in crack and other drug markets 33   4. Aging of the population 32     CRIME-DROP EXPLANATION NUMBER OF CITATIONS   5. Tougher gun control laws 32   6. Strong economy 28   7. Increased number of police 26